20260115_090002_bitfinex_tETHUSD_price_relative_to_mu.md

# Discovery Run: 20260115_090002

**Exchange:** bitfinex
**Symbol:** tETHUSD
**Focus:** price relative to multiple EMAs
**Started:** Thu Jan 15 09:00:02 AM CET 2026

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I've developed and saved a new profitable ETH/USD trading strategy. Here's the summary:

## Strategy: `eth_ema_alignment_balanced`

**Concept:** Momentum strategy using multi-EMA alignment score to identify strong uptrends.

**How it works:**
1. **EMA Alignment Score (0-4 points):**
   - Price > EMA20 (+1)
   - EMA20 > EMA50 (+1)
   - EMA50 > EMA100 (+1)
   - EMA100 > EMA200 (+1)

2. **Entry Conditions:**
   - Perfect alignment (score = 4) just formed
   - EMA50 slope > 0.5% over 20 bars (trend confirmation)
   - Price < 8% above EMA50 (not overextended)

3. **Exit Conditions:**
   - Take profit: 8%
   - Stop loss: 4%
   - Signal exit: Score ≤ 2 OR EMA50 slope negative

**Train Period Results (2024-2025H1):**
| Year | Return | Trades | Win Rate |
|------|--------|--------|----------|
| 2024 | +15.2% | 18 | 39% |
| 2025 (H1) | +12.0% | 6 | 50% |
| **Total** | **+27.2%** | 24 | 40% |

**Risk Metrics:**
- Max Drawdown: 28.4% (under 40% limit)
- Top 3 trades share: ~103% of PnL (balanced distribution with 8% TP cap)
- Uses only relative indicators (no specific price levels)
- Round parameter values only (4, 8, 20, 50, 100, 200)

**Robustness Features:**
- Regime filter (requires EMA50 > EMA100 > EMA200)
- Prevents overextended entries
- Capped take-profit prevents over-reliance on few big winners
- Stays flat during bearish periods

The strategy file is saved at `/var/lib/scriptrunner/staging/eth_ema_alignment_balanced.py` and will be automatically validated on unseen data (2025-H2) when the discovery script runs.

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**Completed:** Thu Jan 15 09:10:02 AM CET 2026